Over the weekend, on a family trip in central Kentucky, I paid more than $4 per gallon for gasoline for the first time during our current price spike.

Even after years of writing about how U.S. gasoline is inexpensive when compared to other countries, the cost stung as my vacation budget flowed into my gas tank.

I’ve long known that my next vehicle will be an EV, whenever my Honda CR-V reaches the end of its useful life. But that probably will be years, and it underscores the difficulty of tying any short-term trend in gasoline prices to a shift away from internal combustion engines.

Every time prices soar, I see automobile research organizations and EV advocates highlight the opportunity for EVs to gain market share. But substantial change in a short period of time requires ingredients that are absent in today’s U.S. market, including supportive policies and a variety of affordable models.

Unless high prices due to the Iran war persist for a while—let’s say six months or more—with a U.S. average price that stays above $4 and maybe even touches $5, I expect the effect on EV sales will be small.

I’m speaking from experience, including covering the 2008 price spike that led to increased demand for the most fuel-efficient cars. And it went away soon enough, with consumer preferences shifting back to trucks and SUVs.

This isn’t just anecdotal evidence. Researchers such as Joshua Linn, an economist at the University of Maryland, have looked at the relationship between fuel prices and the average fuel efficiency of the country’s vehicle fleet. He is also a senior fellow at Resources for the Future, a think tank that studies energy and the environment.

Linn has found that rising gasoline prices contribute to consumers buying vehicles that have lower fuel costs. Much of this research was conducted before EVs were widely available, so consumers were choosing among gasoline vehicles.

But this effect was small, he said in an interview.

“Consumers would clearly shift toward cars that get better fuel economy, but overall you’d see an average MPG increase of about one mile per gallon,” he said, referring to an example in which gasoline prices have risen by about $1 per gallon.

Now, the potential fuel savings are much larger than before because gas-electric hybrids and all-electric vehicles are available and they have huge fuel savings compared to a typical gasoline model, he said.

But, he explained, that many factors may limit the effect of this price spike on consumer choices. First, a price spike of just a month or two doesn’t have much of an effect on car sales.

“Many consumers might think that things will calm down, gas prices will go back down,” Linn said.

It likely will take a prolonged period of high or volatile prices for many consumers to make the leap to considering only hybrids or EVs, he said.

Meanwhile, there is a clear short-term effect of high gasoline prices: Consumers have less money to spend, which harms just about every part of the economy that relies on consumer spending.

David Reichmuth, research director for the clean transportation program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, laments that most consumers have little ability to make a sudden change in their vehicle because they only buy a new or used car every few years.

This timing issue is “really unfortunate in terms of where it puts us in the ability for both the economy and for drivers to make that response to when the prices of gasoline go up,” he said.

His larger advice is that EVs were a financial winner even before the current spike.

“The transition to EVs made sense even when gasoline prices were half of what they are now,” he said.

U.S. policymakers and automakers have missed opportunities by not aligning incentives and vehicle options with what drivers want and need.

Right now, drivers want and need to better manage their fuel costs. As of last October, Congress and President Donald Trump eliminated the tax credit of up to $7,500 for buying a new EV and up to $4,000 for buying a used EV.

Automakers responded to the decrease in incentives and the perception of declining EV demand last fall by shifting away from plug-in vehicles and placing greater emphasis on gasoline trucks and SUVs.

This helps to explain why U.S. electric vehicles sales were down 27 percent in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of the prior year, according to Cox Automotive. EV market share was 5.8 percent of U.S. cars and light trucks, down from a peak of 10.6 percent last year.

There are signs that the sales swoon is abating. Stephanie Valdez Streaty, Cox’s director of insights, said in a statement that the market going forward will be “driven less by policy and more by fundamentals,” adding that long-term fundamentals favor EV growth.

One discouraging sign for the near-term market is that automakers continue canceling EV models, leaving fewer options, especially at the low end of the price scale. I wrote last month about Honda deciding to stop plans for three U.S.-made EVs that were going to be statements about the company’s future design and technology.

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General Motors has said its newly revamped Chevrolet Bolt EV will be produced for about 18 months, going on sale this year and then ending production next year.

Volkswagen said this week that it will stop selling the ID.4 in the United States, taking away the model that had been the company’s main EV in this market.

You may get the impression that the EV market is dying based on these announcements, but the opposite is true. The market is booming in Europe and most of the rest of the world, with China and North America the two regions that lost ground in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter in 2025, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Some of the decline in sales in China was expected due to changes in government policy and a slowing economy, but the country’s automakers have compensated by increasing their market share in other countries.

U.S.-based automakers don’t have a similar story to tell.

Ford CEO Jim Farley made this point clear when he appeared on Fox News this week to tout the F-150 pickup’s continuing status as the bestselling vehicle in the United States. The interview took a turn when the host asked about competition from Chinese EVs.

China is shut out of the U.S. market by tariffs and Farley said it’s important to keep it that way. He said China’s vehicle production capacity is large enough that its exports could wreck the U.S. manufacturing economy.

“Manufacturing is the heart and soul of our country and for us to lose that to those exports would be devastating for our country,” he said.

He also acknowledged that “Ford has to do our part to make our vehicles fully competitive with the Chinese” and he expressed confidence that upcoming Ford EVs will do that.

In the meantime, U.S. consumers have a paltry selection when looking for budget-priced EVs, the kinds of cars and trucks that China is making by the millions and selling in most of the rest of the world.

Other stories about the energy transition to take note of this week:

China’s Electrostate Is a Winner in the Iran War: The Iran war is showing many countries the risks of relying heavily on imported oil and natural gas. And, a global shift to wind, solar and batteries is good for China, the country that leads in manufacturing components for all of those resources, as Meaghan Tobin and Keith Bradsher report for The New York Times.

Maine Passes Nation’s First Moratorium on Data Centers: Maine’s House and Senate have passed a bill that would pause development of large data centers until October 2027. Sponsors said the legislation will allow for time to write rules to protect consumers and the environment, as I report for ICN. Gov. Janet Mills has not said whether she will sign the bill, which is the first of its type to pass in any state. But it probably won’t be the last. At least a dozen states have bills that would pause or limit data centers amid concerns about high demand for electricity and water.

For the First Time, Renewables Beat Natural Gas in U.S. Power Generation: In March, the United States generated more electricity from renewable sources than from natural gas or any other source, the first time that’s happened in the history of our current grid, as reported by Yale E360. March is typically a month with low electricity generation, so grid operators use coal and gas plants less than they would in summer or winter. It’s probably going to be a while until renewables exceed gas for a full year, but that day is coming.

California’s Climate Leaders Talk Clean Energy Growing Pains and the War on Iran: With boos for Gov. Gavin Newsom and concerns about the energy implications of the war in Iran, California climate and clean energy activists met to discuss what’s ahead, as my colleague Claire Barber reports. Many advocates view Newsom as an obstacle to a rapid shift to clean energy and they’re pleased that he will soon leave office as required by term limits.

Inside Clean Energy is ICN’s weekly bulletin of news and analysis about the energy transition. Send news tips and questions to [email protected].